1/19/2021 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 through Monday, January 25th, 2021
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A shortwave passing late Tuesday enhances snow, generally in the most prone northwest flow lake effect areas. Ridging builds in Wednesday moderating temperatures for a short period, but a front passing Thursday brings a return to cooler conditions. Cooler temperatures linger into Friday as do northwest flow lake effect snow showers. Quiet conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure overhead.
As for air quality, without a period of stagnation this week daily averages of fine particulate should be mostly Good. With that, some locations may experience a few hours each day with hourly concentrations in the Moderate range. Winds turn southwesterly for a short period of time Wednesday, but winds will be gusty, therefore, this should not cause much of an increase in fine particulate. Early Thursday, the direction returns to the west/northwest and generally Good air quality is expected both Thursday and Friday. Increases in fine particulate towards the Moderate range are possible Saturday as winds decrease under high pressure.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show the next system approaching Sunday. Models are not clear on the timing or strength of this system, however, southerly winds, which will be light at times, could cause Moderate fine particulate early next week.