10/5/2020 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, October 5th, 2020 through Monday, October 12th, 2020
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good; some low Moderates are possible late in the period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be Good through mid-week with a mix of Good and low-Moderates the rest of the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Over the next week the only chances for precipitation come late Monday into Tuesday, then again late Tuesday into Wednesday. The first system is a weak boundary and any associated precipitation will be light and contained to the norther portion of the state. The second system is more organized and better chances for rain exist; however, the precipitation will again be more confined to northern areas. Aside from these systems, the region will be dominated with high pressure producing sunshine and dry conditions. Cooler temperatures through mid-week will moderate for the end of the week and weekend.
Last week Good air quality was seen for both ozone and fine particulate. The expected ozone forecast this next week will be a continuation of primarily Good levels. This can be attributed to cooler temperatures at both the surface and upper levels through mid-week. As high pressure builds overhead Thursday and then east Friday, warmer temperatures enter the region with the warmest reading expected Saturday. Warmer surface and upper level temperatures, coupled with plenty of sunshine, could allow for low-Moderate ozone in a few southern monitors; however, it’s too late in the season for widespread increased ozone. The threat for low-Moderates could continue into early next week, but again, most locations should remain Good.
The two systems early in the week will produce a northwesterly flow in their wake. This will help fine particulate stay generally Good through Wednesday. Lighter winds Thursday, turning southerly Friday could be a period of low-Moderate fine particulate, especially in southern portion of the state. Increased wind speeds Saturday should keep fine particulate from increasing higher than a continuation of low-Moderate.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show high pressure being reinforced early next week with a continuation of dry conditions and comfortable fall temperatures. Air quality early next week is not expected to be higher than low-Moderate for either ozone or fine particulate.