6/16/2020 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Tuesday, June 16th, 2020 through Wednesday, June 17th, 2020
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mixture of Good and increasing Moderates through Wednesday with decreasing Air Quality by the end of the week.PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates through the week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Monday was a sunny, dry day with Air Quality concentrations in the Good category throughout the state. Tuesday will be continuation under the same dome of high pressure with slowly warming temperatures and dew points. As such, I think Tuesday will remain mostly Good and some Moderates expected in Southeast Michigan and the western lake shore.
Wednesday will more of a ramp-up day as temperatures and humidity continue to increase under the same air mass. Several of the models are holding down Wednesday temperatures to around the 80 degree with upper air temperature also remaining on the cooler side. This scenario would keep Air Quality a mixture of Good and Moderates. Other models have it warming up several degrees more and that could yield worsening Air Quality if that pans out. Right now, I am on the side of the fence that gives us a mixture of Good and Moderates.
Thursday and Friday will likely be more interesting as we remain under the same air mass, pollutants accumulate, and temperatures/humidity increase. The model results for those days are also differing on surface and upper air temperature and will require close monitoring. Therefore, I intend to update this forecast Wednesday morning once the latest model runs are out.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should remain mostly Good with increasing Moderates by midweek, and declining Air Quality by the end of the work week.