Forecast Summary:

Monday, February 14th, 2022, through Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from upper Good to upper Moderate at times during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool, relatively quiet conditions start the week; however, a mid-week system could bring mixed precipitation at the onset then accumulating snow Thursday. A clipper system brings more snow showers into the forecast Friday night/early Saturday as it tracks northwest to southeast across the state. Quiet conditions look to return by the weekend as high pressure moves in and temperatures moderate early next week.

 As for fine particulate, cooler temperatures and lighter winds Monday allow for Moderate fine particulate, generally across the southern portion of the state. Southeast winds Tuesday switch to the southwest Wednesday brining in warmer air. More widespread Moderate fine particulate is anticipated Tuesday and more so Wednesday with the warmer air coming in at the surface and upper levels. Also, weaker morning winds will allow for low level inversions to trap pollutants closer to the surface. Hourly fine particulate may reach the low-end USG range either Tuesday or Wednesday mornings; however, daily averages higher than Moderate are not expected. Northeasterly then northerly winds develop Thursday as the front passes and the storm tracks southeast of the state. Fine particulate levels should improve during the day Thursday and generally Good reading should be in place Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure in place during the weekend. The way it looks currently, northerly winds Saturday will keep fine particulate generally Good. A southerly flow develops by Sunday with a warm front moving north through the state Monday. If the extended forecast pans out, warmer conditions develop early next week which could bring in Moderate fine particulate, especially with increased surface moisture due to snowmelt. No strong storm system looks to move through before next Tuesday, however, Moderate fine particulate is a good possibility. This forecast will be updated if conditions change where we feel 24-hour fine particulate levels higher than the Moderate range are likely.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach, Monday, February 14th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022