12/20/2021 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 20th, 2021 through Monday, December 27th, 2021
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Moderates early in the week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Several systems will cross the state, during the forecast period, keeping the atmosphere well mixed and Air Quality mostly Good. There was a spike in numbers last Thursday, as fires and dust from the plain’s states impacted the Midwest with short bursts of high fine particulate concentrations. The high impact hours were not persistent, and the 24-hour averages settled into the Low Moderate range.
Monday stands the best chance of seeing Low Moderate concentrations as warmer southwest winds cover the state before a dry and cold front sweeps through the state Monday evening. A shortwave of low pressure is then expected to cross the state Tuesday evening. Most precipitation with that system will be confined to areas north of I-96 and should be limited to 1-2 inches.
The next shortwave is expected Thursday evening which should be fairly weak. The chance of precipitation would likely be more widespread although light. The longer-range forecasts are showing another system late Christmas Eve. Southerly winds in advance of the front should keep Friday warmer although colder temperatures will sweep in after the frontal passage on Christmas Day. However, those temperatures do not look to be terribly cold so any snow attempts should be limited.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to start the next work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 20th, 2021.