FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 10th, 2022, through Friday, October 14th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate Monday and Tuesday, with Good levels the rest of the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A nice fall day is in store Monday which will last into part of Tuesday; however, the next system is approaching from the west. This system lifts a warm front north producing a strong southwesterly wind Tuesday which could allow temperatures to reach close to 70 degrees. Precipitation can also be expected to travel southwest to northeast later in the day. An associated cold front passes west to east Wednesday keeping showers and storms in the forecast. By Thursday, northwesterly winds behind the boundary ushers in cooler temperatures and the northwesterly flow brings in the possibility of scattered lake effect showers.

As for air quality, fine particulate will be the driving pollutant during the forecast period. Lighter winds Monday, and increased moisture on a southwest wind Tuesday could cause scattered low Moderate concentrations, generally across the southern portion of the state. Precipitation Wednesday and expected northerly winds behind the front keeps fine particulate levels generally Good Wednesday through Friday. Even though surface temperatures increase Tuesday and southwesterly wind develop, cooler upper-level and surface temperatures, coupled with the earlier sunset this time of year, will keep ozone concentrations Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating south of the state while a boundary may keep precipitation around across the north. Regardless, conditions should be active enough in the long term to keep pollution levels mostly Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday, October 14th, 2022