FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 16th, 2022, through Monday, May 23rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through midweek, Moderates are possible Thursday through Saturday with Good levels returning early next week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and low-mid Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm, summerlike conditions last week caused some increased ozone on Thursday, May 12th at monitors northwest of the Detroit area. Two monitors reported low-end USG while the rest of the state ranged mostly middle to upper Moderate. Moderate ozone lingered in several locations Friday with levels improving late in the weekend. For this week, cool high pressure dominates conditions Monday and Tuesday allowing for Good ozone and fine particulate. The next system to bring precipitation moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Fine particulate may reach low Moderate at a couple southeast locations Wednesday, otherwise, pollution levels will remain Good.

A warm front lifts north Thursday bringing back southerly winds and warmer temperatures. At this time Thursday and Friday look to be our best days for Moderate ozone; however, there should be enough cloud cover, especially Friday, to keep ozone Moderate. If our thoughts on this change, we will update this forecast. A frontal boundary lingers over the state Saturday with chances for scattered precipitation. The cold front takes its time passing east late Saturday, early Sunday. Fine particulate levels late in the week may range low Moderate, but generally Good ozone is expected past Friday.

One thing to be noted early this week is there is a wildfire, the Blue Lakes Fire, currently burning in portions of Montmorency and Cheboygan counties in northeast Michigan. The fire is in a rural area roughly 2,710 acres in size and as of late Sunday was 60% contained. The closest state monitors to the fire are in Houghton Lake and Seney. So far, neither of those monitors are reporting higher fine particulate levels due to the fire. This is something we will keep an eye on. Based on monitors, satellite, and current/expected weather conditions we do not feel there are widespread adverse pollution impacts. However, anyone near the location of the fire should be aware of the threat for increased levels of fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a cool down early next week with Good air quality expected.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Wednesday, May 16th, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, May 23rd, 2022.