FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 13, 2023, through Friday, February 17, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will be Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week begins on a quiet note with dry conditions Monday into Tuesday, then a more active pattern develops. By Tuesday, northerly winds turn southerly ahead of an approaching storm system. The change in direction increases both temperatures and moisture. Associated precipitation holds off until later Tuesday and precipitation should generally be in the form of rain. Warmer temperatures linger Wednesday as the state becomes positioned between two systems. The next storm brings mixed precipitation Thursday. Models show conditions drying out Friday with only some lake effect snow lingering.

As for air quality, northerly winds Monday should keep fine particulate mostly Good. As southerly winds develop Tuesday and moisture moves into the region, levels increase to a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate. This range continues Wednesday into Thursday, but readings improve Friday as northerly winds move in behind the Thursday storm system.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating during the weekend as temperatures warm back into the 40s. Breeze conditions are also expected, and it does not look like long range fine particulate will be a concern but with the Presidents Day holiday next Monday, we will do a forecast update Friday to detail levels through next Tuesday.

Next Forecast update: Friday, February 17, 2023

Stephanie M. Hengesbach