FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 8, 2023, through Monday, May 15, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low pressure tracking along a west to east frontal boundary positioned south of the state Monday could triggered precipitation in the southern areas; otherwise, high pressure dropping in from the north provides dry conditions. High pressure dominates through mid-week with temperatures moderating Tuesday into Thursday. The next chance for precipitation arrives Friday as the high departs east and southeast/southerly winds increase moisture over the region.

As for air quality, clouds and precipitation chances keep pollution levels Good Monday. The only exception would be for of a monitor or two in the southeast to reach low-end Moderate for fine particulate. Clouds will be decreasing west to east Tuesday as surface temperatures increase a few degrees. Plentiful sunshine generally makes ozone more conducive; however, cooler upper-level temperatures and northerly winds should keep both ozone and fine particulate generally Good. As the high slides overhead, wind speeds decrease Wednesday and by Thursday the surface flow turns more south/southeasterly. Skies will be sunny and surface temperatures increase both days, but what likely hampers ozone development are cooler upper-level temperatures. While the likelihood of Moderate ozone and fine particulate spreads Wednesday into Thursday, readings higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weather system in the region keeping clouds and precipitation chances for the weekend into early next week. Ozone levels should range mostly Good while fine particulate may be Good to low Moderate.

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 15, 2023