3/1/2021 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, March 1st, 2021 through Monday, March 8th, 2021
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a sprinkling of Moderates during Tuesday and Wednesday.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Today (Monday) marks the beginning of meteorological Spring (March 1st), as opposed to astronomical Spring (March 20th). Yes, I needed to insert the word “Spring” into my forecast!
During the past two weeks, observers have noted that fine particulate levels have been running well into the Moderate range throughout the Midwest. This was due, in part, by warming temperatures over a melting snow base with calm nights and sinking air.
That trend was finally broken up early Monday morning with the passage of a front. Cleaner, dryer air has pushed out the accumulated fine particulates and we are back into the Good range. The high pressure cell moving over Michigan during Monday will be quickly pushed out and replaced by a brief warming trend during Tuesday and Wednesday. While I would expect some Low Moderates in the more urban areas, most of the state should stay in the Good range.
Colder, cleaner air should return on Thursday and persist through most of the forecast period keeping our Air Quality Good. Southerly wind flow returns late in the weekend which could trigger another creep in fine particulates.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into next week.