FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 25, 2024, through Wednesday, November 27, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mix of Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow) on Monday then mostly Good (AQI Green) for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The holiday week is starting out under gray skies and Good Air Quality north of U.S. 10 and Low Moderate conditions south of U.S. 10.  Multiple periods of showers to expected for today and tonight as several waves of low pressure in the upper atmosphere are expected to traverse through the region.  Showers are expected to continue Monday night, as more moisture becomes available, and a cold front passes through.  Following the cold front, Air Quality is expected to be Good through the state.

 Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, following the overnight cold front passage, as temperatures begin to fall ahead of incoming colder air.  High temperatures on Tuesday are not expected to get out of the upper 30’s.  Tuesday into Wednesday should be mostly dry before some light rain/snow chances arrive for the Southern Lower later Wednesday.  As Wednesday is expected to be one of the busiest travel days of the year, it is conceivable that weather could slightly hamper travel efforts, albeit the threat is relatively low.  Much depends on the track of a low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley, at the time, and only the far southern tier counties would be affected.  The good news is that most of it will happen after dark and, hopefully, after many are done traveling for the holiday.  Most of the effects of that system should be out of the way by daylight, Thursday morning, for Thanksgiving Day travel.

 A more serious threat occurs as we enter the Thursday night into Friday time frame.  Deeper, colder air becomes entrenched over the area with a wind flow pattern from the west-northwest.  This will favor all the western lakeshore counties likely to see advisory type snows Thursday night into Friday night. 

 Lake effect intensity should taper off, a bit, during Saturday as the forecast models are showing some high pressure ridging building in.  This will likely be short lived, however, as another short wave drops down Saturday night that could ramp up lake effect snows that could continue through the following week.

 As we will have a long holiday weekend beginning Thursday and Air Quality does not appear to be an issue, the forecast weekend forecast will be issued on Wednesday to cover the holiday weekend.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Wednesday, November 27, 2024