FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 28, 2024, through, Friday, November 1, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI), but a few locations may reach low Moderate (Yellow AQI) Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new workweek starts with a dry, mild Monday, but the next few days feature a rollercoaster of temperatures. Yes, the end of October is quickly approaching; however, record-breaking temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front pushing north through the state late Monday/early Tuesday brings with it chances for showers and/or storms but also a gusty southwest wind in its wake. This strong, southerly flow brings in warm air Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs well into the 70s expected. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front tracks west to east through the Great Lakes region. This boundary may result in wet conditions for trick-or-treaters on Halloween. The start of November features cooler and dry conditions as high pressure moves in behind the Thursday cold front.

As for air quality, Thursday is Halloween, but it also officially marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. Warmer temperatures on a southerly wind may allow for a few locations to reach low-Moderate for ozone either Tuesday or Wednesday; however, mostly Good readings will close out the 2024 season. For fine particulate, the strong southerly wind may transport in some smoke from seasonal agricultural fires well south of the state. We are seeing this trend in current weather models, and it is being picked up on smoke forecast models as well. We do not expect significant increases in fine particulate at the surface, but readings in the Moderate range are likely, especially across much of lower Michigan. We will keep an eye on both the weather forecast and smoke models during the week, and this forecast will be updated if daily averages higher than Moderate become likely.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next storm system approaching Sunday, which will bring precipitation back into the forecast. Air quality levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected during this period.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, November 1, 2024