FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 21st, through Friday October 25th 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and Low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Summer-like warmth returns for the beginning half of this week with some areas in Michigan approaching the 80-degree mark today and tomorrow, Tuesday. This late-October warm up is solely due to the persistent High-pressure sitting to our southeast, bringing in warm air from the south via southwesterly winds. As we approach midweek, however, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front will traverse the Great Lakes region bringing a cool down back to near-normal temperatures and the potential for rain showers throughout the day on Wednesday. As quickly as the Low-pressure enters the region is as quickly as it leaves as Thursday, although cooler, will see a High-pressure and associated clear skies sitting right over us in the Great Lakes state. In Pure Michigan fashion, however, we rollercoaster into another Low-pressure system with more potential for rain on Friday. Yet another High-pressure will fill in behind this Low-pressure providing clearing skies for the last weekend of October.

For air quality, throughout this past weekend there was an upper-level wildfire smoke plume that hung around the Midwest. This Monday morning appears to see that same plume hanging around with some of the smoke dropping down to the mid-to-lower levels of the atmosphere due to the ongoing High-pressure regime. Intermittent hazy skies can be expected through Wednesday until the Low-pressure comes in and cleans out the atmosphere. PM-2.5 concentrations near the surface are expected to be in the Moderate range, with some of the more populated areas seeing hourly values in the high-Moderate range. But overall daily averages for PM-2.5 should average out in the low-to-mid Moderate range. For Ozone, we start the last full week of the 2024 Ozone season with the potential of Moderate to possibly high-Moderate concentrations due to the warming temperatures today, Monday and tomorrow, Tuesday. Nothing more than Moderate concentrations is expected, especially as the Low-pressure and cold front on Wednesday will help to clean out any build up.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, we may see intermittent rain on Friday, but skies clear for the weekend thanks to a High-pressure system. Overall air quality is expected to remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Friday October 25th, 2024