FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, November 27, 2023, through FRIDAy, December 1, 2023

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range mostly Good through mid-week, with some Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week begins on a cold note with gusty west/northwest winds and snow showers, which are primarily lake effect in nature. An upper-level system later Monday into Tuesday will enhance snow showers; however, the highest accumulations remain in the most prone northwest flow lake effect locations. Ridging builds in for a short time before another shortwave produces additional snow showers early Wednesday. On Thursday, there is some uncertainty about the timing of two weather systems: a front dropping in from the northwest and another system moving in from the southwest. Even with that uncertainty, temperatures should be increasing to near-normal levels by the end of the workweek.

Weaker winds under high pressure allowed for some Moderate PM2.5 concentrations in the southeast on Saturday and more widespread across southern portions of the state on Sunday. Hourly readings in the low-Moderate range were experienced early Monday morning in the southeast, but strong northwest winds will allow levels to fall to Good as the day progresses. The active pattern setting up for much of the week should keep daily PM2.5 concentrations primarily Good through Wednesday. The southern portion of the state may be between weather systems Thursday, with better chances for precipitation Friday. Concentrations of PM2.5 during this period will likely be a mix of middle-Good to low-Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions on Saturday, with another system for early next week. This air quality forecast will be updated on Friday, but pollution levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected in the long-term forecast.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 1st, 2023