FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 22nd, 2022, through Monday, July 25th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate most of the forecast period, but isolated USG is possible.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm conditions will end out the week as humidity levels increase Friday into Saturday. A shortwave passing through brings scattered storms Friday night/early Saturday, generally across the south. Clouds will decrease for a time Saturday but a stronger system approaching allows for more widespread precipitation Saturday night and continuing Sunday as a cold front crosses the state. Cooler and dryer weather can be expected by Monday as high pressure settles in from the northwest.

As for air quality, warm temperatures are in place Friday. Surface winds are generally west to southwest, but upper-level flow is more northwesterly. While we anticipate an uptick in ozone levels, reading should remain in the Good to Moderate range. The best chance for scattered low-end USG readings will be along the west Michigan lakeshore. Clouds increase later Friday ahead of the storms which pass overnight. Storms pull away and clouds start the day Saturday, but skies do clear out for a time late morning/early afternoon before increasing again later in the day. Temperatures, wind flow, and humidity levels are conducive for ozone; however, we don’t feel skies will be clear long enough to allow for elevated ozone to develop. If parts of the state end up with more sunshine than expected, a low-end USG may occur with the best chances again being along the western lakeshore. Clouds and precipitation should allow for mostly Good ozone Sunday.

Without a period of stagnation, fine particulate levels should remain in check over the forecast period. A mix of Good to Moderates can be expected Friday through Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Cooler conditions after the Sunday front brings in cooler and cleaner air for early next week. Air quality should range generally Good Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, July 22st, 2022
Next Forecast update: Monday, July 25th, 2022