FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 22, 2024, through Friday, July 26, 2024

OZONE:

8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first half of the week looks a bit unsettled, in the weather department, but will transition into some great weather for the second half of the work week and the weekend.

 A weak shortwave lifts into the southern Great Lakes area, during Monday, that will touch off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially areas where lake breeze boundaries form.  Atmospheric instability is only modest, so I am not expected any severe outbreaks.  Any storms that develop Monday afternoon will dissipate toward the evening leading to a partly cloudy night.  Showers and storms will be in play, again, on Tuesday as low pressure, combined with an upper trough moves eastward across northern Michigan.  Air Quality is expected to range from Good to Moderate during this time.

Wednesday will see a cold front drive through Michigan during the day.  Enough ingredients will be in place for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with rainfall potentials up to 1.5 inches.  Air Quality will be mostly Good during Wednesday.

Once we get past Wednesday, conditions improve significantly as high pressure quickly builds into the Great Lakes region.  Cooler air will push in but will only drop Thursday’s daytime high temperatures down to the mid/upper 70s to 80 degrees.  Surface high pressure will maintain dryer conditions Friday and Saturday as daytime high temperatures climb back into the 80s with comfortable dew points.  Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good.

 We are tracking a large area of wildfire smoke over the Plaines states.  Fortunately, all models are keeping surface smoke away from Michigan although some elevated smoke could provide more colorful sunrises and sunsets.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 26, 2024