FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 20, 2024, through Friday, February 23rd, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range mostly Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Mild conditions persist through mid-week, with generally sunny skies on Tuesday turning a bit cloudier on Wednesday and Thursday. A weak system over the region may produce some light precipitation on Wednesday, but most areas remain dry. On Thursday, a storm system tracks from west to east through the Ohio River Valley. Precipitation from the system may reach portions of the state, but a more noticeable change in conditions comes Friday as an arctic cold front drops in from the north, bringing colder temperatures and lake-effect snow back into the forecast.

Fine particulate levels Tuesday morning have been running from middle to upper Moderate across the central and southern portions of the state. Hourly concentrations should improve as the day progresses; however, daily averages in the Moderate range are expected across most of the lower peninsula. On Wednesday, southerly winds pick up and warmer air moving in will help dissipate some of the snowpack that still exists. The increase in moisture will keep daily averages of fine particulate mostly Moderate statewide, and like Tuesday morning, a few morning hourly readings may be in the high Moderate to low-end USG range before falling to middle Moderate late morning. Moderate concentrations may linger into Thursday as well, but the cold front dropping in from the northwest on Friday will improve any buildup and bring back Good pollution levels for the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Extended forecast models show the cooldown being short-lived, with another warm-up for next week. Weekend fine particulate levels should remain mostly Good but could increase towards Moderate again if the warmup pans out.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, February 23rd, 2024