FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 16, 2024, through Tuesday, February 20th, 2024

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: A return to winter was felt in the latter half of this week with essentially all of Michigan receiving some form of wintry precipitation. Along with a return of snow, temperatures dropped to near-normal temperatures and will be below normal as we start off our weekend on Saturday with highs ranging in the 20s. NNE winds will be dominating the region this weekend and is the culprit for the below-normal temperatures. Due to the cooler temperatures and NNE winds, lake-effect snow will be present throughout the weekend, especially for communities along Lake Superior and in the northwestern Lower Peninsula. Although winds stay relatively the same directionally, upper-level patterns bring slightly warmer air back to Michigan on Sunday with temperatures in the low-mid 30s. A reversal of the winds occurs on Monday as a pressure system moves into the region from out west, which will bring warmer southwesterly winds. This will continue into early next week as yet another warmup is on the horizon.

For air quality, due to the predominantly northerly winds for the majority of the weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations will not be an issue as cleaner air will be regularly blown into the region. Conditions will also be breezy at times so the odds of long-lasting inversions are low. In the latter half of the weekend and going into next week, warmer temperatures and change in air direction will allow for some particulates to increase, hence why I have a Good to low-Moderate range for the PM-2.5 forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST: As stated above, a warmup is on the horizon for the middle of next week with the 50s returning to the area. Increases in surface temperatures and a disjointed snowpack across the state may allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to approach the mid-to-high Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, February 20th, 2024