FORECAST SUMMARY: SUNday, may 28, 2023, through MONday, may 29, 2023

OZONE:  8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate with the slight potential for scattered USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current dry weather and increasing temperatures regime will continue through most of the upcoming week with no rain in sight.  Fortunately, our Air Quality is holding with readings in the Moderate range for both ozone and fine particulates.  Temperatures have been in the upper 70’s and dew points in the 40’s.  Sunday’s temperatures should finally cross into the lower 80’s and continue to increase, every day, this week.  Dew points should continue to stay in the dry, 40-50 degree range through Monday then start an increase into more humid air. 

The models are indicating that our Air Quality should stay in the Moderate range through Memorial Day.  There is the slight possibility that our monitor in the southwest corner of the state could creep near the USG range.  Areas west of downwind Detroit, like Ypsilanti, may see the same with the east winds.  But there is not enough evidence, yet, to justify an Action Day.  That said, I will be monitoring our Air Quality today and tomorrow, and if any of our monitor stations looks to exceed the USG threshold, I will update their status to trigger EnviroFlash notifications.

Since we will be under the same air mass for days to come, I expect each day to be a little worse than the last with the increasing stagnation.  Once we hit USG concentration levels, it will likely remain and worsen until the next frontal cleanout, which may not occur until next weekend.  As such, I will be updating this forecast Monday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Moderate to USG during the upcoming work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Sunday, May 28, 2023

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 29, 2023