FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday November 28th, 2022, through December 5th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a Thanksgiving holiday and weekend of relatively above-average surface temperatures, Michigan will see temperatures return to seasonal averages this week. Classic November weather is expected in the beginning half of this week with temperatures in the 40s and mostly cloudy skies. This pattern is disrupted Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region bringing windy conditions and dropping high temperatures to the mid-to-upper 20s throughout the state. Along with this cold front, mixed precipitation is possible with lake-effect snow on the table as well. Compared to what was seen a couple weeks ago with lake-effect snow, this event will be minimal with only an inch or two of snow being predicted in the Great Lakes snowbelts. The blustery conditions calm down throughout the day on Thursday, but temperatures hover around freezing, however.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, a High-pressure system drifts in from the south and remains in the Ohio River valley, but still influences our winds. Later in the week, winds will shift to more SSE bringing warmer temperatures from the south. This increase in temperatures will be short-lived as yet another cold front passes through on Saturday, dropping temperatures back to around freezing. Blustery conditions return as well, and temperatures hang around the freezing mark to end the weekend.

In terms of air quality, morning hour inversions will continue throughout the week. With the help of the passing cold fronts, the inversions should not pose a threat to an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. There appears to be an inversion this morning, Monday, that will persist into the afternoon, but as winds increase, the inversion will dissipate. Over the holiday weekend, there was enough air dispersion, so particulates did not build up as much. We suspect this will be the case for this forecast period due to the passing frontal boundaries and increase in winds throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures look to rebound to start next week before another cold front approaches next Tuesday into Wednesday. Overall air quality will be Good to start next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday December 5th, 2022