FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 26, 2024, through monday, April 29, 2024
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI), with some scattered low-Moderates (Yellow AQI) through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will remain mostly Good
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The weather conditions on Friday will be primarily dry with warmer temperatures moving in on a southeast wind. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching storm system. Showers and storms come into the forecast later Friday as a warm front moves up from the southwest. This boundary remains across the northern portion of the state during the weekend, keeping on and off showers and storms in the forecast. Temperatures will be warm, especially south of the boundary. Basically, the weekend and early next week can be summed up with warmer, yet wetter, conditions.
As for air quality, winds pick up from the south/southeast Friday as the boundary moves north. Moisture will also be on the increase during that time. With some sunshine expected pollution levels in the Moderate range are possible for ozone, and Moderate levels are forecast for parts of the southeast. Saturday becomes a bit trickier forecast-wise. Strong southwest winds develop, and smoke models are showing a smoke plume moving in from fires currently across the south/southeastern U.S. Between rounds of precipitation on Saturday, there is a possibility that if the sun breaks out smoke could influence ozone levels. Any influence, however, would only increase concentrations into the low-Moderate range. The same could happen across the south on Sunday so there is a chance for low-Moderate ozone once again. While warmer temperatures linger Monday, clouds and precipitation should hamper any ozone increase, keeping concentrations Good. Throughout the forecast period, wind speeds should be strong enough to keep PM2.5 concentrations mostly Good, with only a few Moderate daily concentrations possible.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show warmer temperatures continuing early next week, along with precipitation chances. Air quality levels are expected to be Good throughout the period.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 29, 2024