01/06/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 6, 2025, through Friday, January 10, 2025

OZONE:

The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Unlike the current weather in the Ohio Valley and Mid-South States, the weather in Michigan has been fairly tranquil.  Cold, yes, but calm and mostly precipitation free. While the Ohio Valley region was besieged with rain, snow, and ice, Michigan actually saw some breaks in the clouds and peeks of sun. 

 This pattern looks to mostly continue through most of the current work week.  The Tuesday night through Wednesday time period does show a trough dropping down from Canada.  But that system does not look to be a big snow producer, maybe an inch or less, but the lake shore could see more.  Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with temperatures struggling to reach the low 20’s.

 Another trough moves through Friday, however, not much moisture is available and snow potential should only be for a chance of snow showers.

 For those seeking a peek at the sun, Thursday looks to be the best chance for a mostly sunny day although we should see some breaks in the clouds on Monday and early Tuesday.

 As far as Air Quality, we have been running in the Good range since the beginning of the new year.  Northerly winds continuing for most of the week should keep it the same although the winds do look to shift to a more southerly direction by the end of the week.   That may begin a slow creep in particulates, but I will review and address that potential in the Friday forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the next week.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 10, 2025

12/30/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 30, 2024, through Friday, January 3, 2025

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with only scattered Moderate (Yellow AQI) levels through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast period starts with quiet conditions Monday as the storm system that brought a soaking rain on Sunday pulls east of the region. The next storm system is quickly approaching, however, and will be tracking through the Ohio River Valley later Tuesday, then off to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. As this system passes to our south, chances for snow move in as well. What will be most noticeable on the first day of 2025 will be the cold temperatures moving in on a strong northwesterly wind. You can expect the cold temperatures, along with lake effect snows, to linger into the beginning days of 2025.

As for air quality, levels are starting from a clean base with mostly Good readings across the state. With lighter winds Tuesday, fine particulate may increase into the low Moderate range at a few southern monitors. Past Tuesday, northwesterly winds will be in place across the region, and this flow will keep air quality readings in the Good range the rest of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold temperatures and lake effect snows lingering into the first weekend of 2025. If this forecast pans out, Good air quality will continue.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 3, 2025

12/27/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday December 27th, 2024, through Monday December 30th 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The last Friday of 2024 is here and all across Michigan we are seeing surface temperatures above normal for this time of year. The warming trend continues into tomorrow with much of the lower peninsula seeing the 50-degree mark tomorrow, Saturday. Areas in the upper peninsula will be more so in the upper-30s to low-40s range. Providing these unseasonably warm temperatures is a Low-pressure system which is making its way towards the Great Lakes from the southwest. This system will shift winds to a more southwesterly flow thus bringing in warmer air. Accompanying the Low-pressure system will be rain, which appears to be broad and scattered tomorrow with areas to the north seeing more rain than the south. Come Sunday, however, that trend flips with the southern portions of the state seeing more precipitation with the north remaining drier. We finally dry out on Monday while we’re in between pressure systems with calm conditions and mild surface temperatures.

Due to the warming surface temperatures this weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to remain in the low-Moderate range for more populated areas. Areas to the north that may still have a hefty snowpack will see PM-2.5 concentrations increasing as well due to melting snow and the release of particulates into the atmosphere. Also, surface level inversions can be expected throughout the weekend, mainly in the morning hours, which will trap particulates near the surface. As each day carries on and wind picks up, although, these concentrations will dissipate. Also, the aforementioned rain we will see this weekend will help keep concentrations at bay by cleaning and washing out the atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

The current trend of mild temperatures and wet conditions appears to continue into next week as we bring in the New Year. Air quality is expected to range from the Good to low-Moderate category.

Next Forecast Update: Friday December 27th, 2024

12/23/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 23rd through Friday December 27th, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We kick off the last full week of December with a clipper system impacting the state with multiple forms of precipitation. As the system moves through today, Monday, a sharp temperature gradient will move through as well providing ample snow amounts to the north and mixed precipitation in mid-Michigan and south. The overall system will traverse the state rather quickly, and only really impacting the state through Monday evening. As we wake up on Tuesday, Christmas Eve, clear skies will be overhead due to a High-pressure system moving in from the west. Tuesday also marks the start of warm up Michigan will see throughout this upcoming week with the weekend being the peak with some areas making a run at the 50s. Before we get to the weekend, however, Christmas Day will be rather quiet with only the very southern portions of the state potentially seeing a few rain showers. With the increase in temperatures throughout this week, winds will predominately be from the southern direction, hence why we see an increase in temperature. Come Thursday and Friday, both days are pretty similar with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to upper-40s.

For air quality this week, we start off in the Good range for much of the state this Monday morning. As the week carries on and weather patterns change, Moderate conditions should be expected due to southerly winds, and an increase in temperature along with snow melt from said increase in temperature. Melting snow releases particulates into the air that were trapped in between snowflakes or any other frozen precipitation. So as the snow melts those particulates are re-released into the atmosphere in the form of PM-2.5. Also, with much of the state seeing an existing snowpack, once the temperatures increase later this week, low-level atmospheric inversions will more than likely form which will trap particulates near the surface. This will especially be true for more populated areas like Grand Rapids and Detroit. Overall, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range with concentrations improving each day as wind picks up and allows for particulates to disperse into the atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, we will the 50-degree mark return to the state this weekend. PM-2.5 concentrations will continue to range from the Good to Moderate category.

Next Forecast Update: Friday December 27th, 2024

12/20/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 20, 2024, through Monday, December 23, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The Friday morning surprise was waking up to 5-6” of fresh snow in mid-Michigan.  Since the long-range forecasts are showing few chances for significant weather events between now and Christmas, will the snow pack linger through Christmas?  Although I expect to see some sun during the weekend, temperatures will fall with daily highs in the 20’s preserving the snow.  Temperatures look to rebound, early next week, with daily highs in the 30’s which will force some melting.  Hopefully, some snow will still be on the ground, Christmas morning.

 Winter solstice occurs at 4:21AM, Saturday morning, for the shortest day of the year.  Although daylight hours increase during the winter months, temperatures will likely continue to fall.  This is because it takes time for the Earth, particularly its oceans, to change temperature, an effect known as seasonal lag.  So colder days are probably coming, but I will take the longer days as a win.

 In terms of Air Quality, we are enjoying Good AQI conditions.  The northerly winds we will experience this weekend should keep Air Quality in the Good range.  The warmup and melting snow, next week, could push fine particulates in the Low Moderate range but I am not expecting any worse.

 For those traveling during the weekend and early next week, no major disruptions look to be predicted.  A weakening shortwave aloft may produce some light precipitation during Monday, before it washes out, but nothing major is expected.  Too soon to tell, with any confidence, about any weather issues post-Christmas.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the next week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 23, 2024

12/17/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 16, 2024, through Friday, December 20, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As the shortest days of the year descend upon us, what little potential sum we could see will continue to elude Michigan.  While skies will continue to be gray and gloomy, I do not see any major winter systems impacting the state during the work week.  That said, weather will remain somewhat unsettled through the week as a series of low pressure shortwaves track across the northern U.S. 

 Monday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period with temperatures reaching as high as the upper 40’s.  On Wednesday there may be some light snow accumulation ranging between a dusting and a couple inches of snow.  There is a higher potential for minor impacts from some accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday as a more developed system tracks through the region followed by colder weekend weather and more lake-effect snow potential.

 While the current weather can be classified as “blah”, Air Quality will be generally Good with some Low Moderates persisting, especially in the southern portion of the state.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 20th, 2024

12/13/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 13, 2024, through Monday, December 16, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period starts with quiet conditions Friday as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure will change the wind flow, finally ending lake effect snow showers that have been prevalent for a few days now. Cold air is in place and clearing skies Friday night allow for overnight lows to dip close to or below zero in many locations, especially further north. On Saturday, the high slides east of the Great Lakes region, and southerly winds develop ahead of the next weather system. This system tracks through the state Saturday night into Sunday, and precipitation may start as a mix before temperatures warm enough for the precipitation to be primarily rain. Yet another system drops in from Canada early next week, which will keep precipitation in the forecast.

 As for air quality, clean air has filtered into the region this week, so expect primarily Good daily fine particulate averages on Friday, aside from a few low Moderate readings in the more urban areas of the state. As southerly winds bring increased moisture and warmer air into the region, we anticipate fine particulate readings to increase. Fine particulate readings for Saturday through early next week will average from upper Good to mid Moderate.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure returning, along with cooler conditions behind the Monday system. If this forecast pans out, a return to Good air quality can be expected.

Next Forecast Update: Monday December 16th, 2024

12/09/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 9, 2024, through, Friday, December 13, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The warmest temperatures this week will be seen today, Monday, under a southerly wind flow ahead of the next weather system. Increased moisture and a chance for light precipitation exist; however, clearing may happen in western locations as the current weather system pulls away from the region. Winter weather makes a return as the week progresses with cooler air moving in behind a Tuesday frontal boundary, and snow also makes a return. Lake effect snow in a northwesterly wind pattern comes into the forecast Tuesday through mid-week. High pressure is expected to move in for a short time Friday, before another system moves across the state Saturday.

 As for air quality, increased moisture Monday could allow for low-Moderate fine particulate levels, especially across the southern portion of the state. Fine particulate concentrations in the low-Moderate range could linger into Tuesday in the southeast; otherwise, cool northwesterly winds should keep fine particulate in the Good range past mid-week. High pressure and weaker winds Friday could allow for a return to low-Moderate pollution levels.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a system moving through on Saturday, which brings precipitation back into the forecast. Fine particulate levels during the coming weekend will likely range from upper Good to low Moderate.

Next Forecast Update: Friday December 13th, 2024

12/06/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday December 6th, through Monday December 9th 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first weekend of December is upon us and boy did Michigan get a snowy welcome from the month of December. Numerous areas across the state piled up snow due to persistent lake effect snow and the aforementioned Alberta Clipper that was mentioned in the Monday forecast. With the Alberta Clipper, cold temperatures were brought into the region via northwesterly winds. These frigid temperatures will persist through much of today, Friday, and the beginning half of Saturday until winds shift to a more southwesterly direction. This is due to a High-pressure system to our north moving towards the east. These southerly winds, however, will be short-lived as a Low-pressure system drops down from Canada early Sunday which will bring in slightly cooler temperatures for the northern regions of Michigan. The Michigan lake effect snow belts will see persistent flurries this weekend due to the changing wind patterns, adding to their already impressive snow totals.

For air quality this weekend, Good to low-Moderate concentrations are expected for PM-2.5. As winds shift from the south, more particulates will enter the state so scattered low-Moderate concentrations are expected then.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight, yet quick warm up is expected early next week with the 40s returning to the state. Another system looks to cross over Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday next week which will drop our temperatures back into the 20s. Overall air quality will be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Monday December 9th, 2024

12/02/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 2nd, 2024, through Friday December 6th, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first week of December provides a wide range of scenery for Michiganders as those to the south see a dusting of snow to open grass whereas those to the north see numerous inches to feet of snow. Lake effect snow has been hammering much of the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula since Thanksgiving Day. Communities along and slightly inland of the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan shoreline will see lake effect snow persist through today, Monday, before slowly tapering off Tuesday, but pop-up flurries throughout this week should be expected. As we approach midweek, an Alberta Clipper is expected to impact our area Wednesday and into Thursday which will drop a few more inches of snow in northern Michigan. Speaking of an Alberta Clipper, this system is merely a fast-moving low-pressure system that originates near the Alberta Province of Canada. These systems are pretty regular in winter months for the Great Lakes, hence why it is given a more specific name. They are fast-moving so impacts statewide will be more so in the wind category as wind gusts are expected to increase throughout the day on Wednesday. Additional impacts will be temperatures dropping and staying near or below freezing this week due to cold Canadian air being brought to our region. Once the clipper system leaves the area, a High-pressure system moves in from the south on Friday and into Saturday providing us calmer conditions and clear skies.

For air quality, due to shifting winds and windy conditions midweek, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range this week. More populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids will see higher concentrations in the morning commute hours but will slowly dissipate as each day carries on.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Similar temperatures and weather conditions look to continue into the first weekend of December. Air quality should remain in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 6th, 2024

11/25/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 25, 2024, through Wednesday, November 27, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mix of Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow) on Monday then mostly Good (AQI Green) for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The holiday week is starting out under gray skies and Good Air Quality north of U.S. 10 and Low Moderate conditions south of U.S. 10.  Multiple periods of showers to expected for today and tonight as several waves of low pressure in the upper atmosphere are expected to traverse through the region.  Showers are expected to continue Monday night, as more moisture becomes available, and a cold front passes through.  Following the cold front, Air Quality is expected to be Good through the state.

 Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, following the overnight cold front passage, as temperatures begin to fall ahead of incoming colder air.  High temperatures on Tuesday are not expected to get out of the upper 30’s.  Tuesday into Wednesday should be mostly dry before some light rain/snow chances arrive for the Southern Lower later Wednesday.  As Wednesday is expected to be one of the busiest travel days of the year, it is conceivable that weather could slightly hamper travel efforts, albeit the threat is relatively low.  Much depends on the track of a low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley, at the time, and only the far southern tier counties would be affected.  The good news is that most of it will happen after dark and, hopefully, after many are done traveling for the holiday.  Most of the effects of that system should be out of the way by daylight, Thursday morning, for Thanksgiving Day travel.

 A more serious threat occurs as we enter the Thursday night into Friday time frame.  Deeper, colder air becomes entrenched over the area with a wind flow pattern from the west-northwest.  This will favor all the western lakeshore counties likely to see advisory type snows Thursday night into Friday night. 

 Lake effect intensity should taper off, a bit, during Saturday as the forecast models are showing some high pressure ridging building in.  This will likely be short lived, however, as another short wave drops down Saturday night that could ramp up lake effect snows that could continue through the following week.

 As we will have a long holiday weekend beginning Thursday and Air Quality does not appear to be an issue, the forecast weekend forecast will be issued on Wednesday to cover the holiday weekend.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Wednesday, November 27, 2024

11/22/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, November 22, 2024, through, Monday, November 25, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The storm system that brought much of the state its first snow of the season continues to spin near the mid-Atlantic states Friday. Cool northerly winds and scattered precipitation linger one more day before a weak high-pressure ridge moves into the Ohio River Valley late Friday into Saturday, drying conditions out. This will be short-lived, however, as the next system approaches from the west late Sunday into Monday. Precipitation returns to the forecast early in the new week.

As for air quality, the cooler, northerly wind flow Friday will keep fine particulate generally Good across the state. Weaker winds move in on Saturday, and the flow turns back to a southerly direction early next week. This will likely cause an increase of fine particulate into the low-Moderate range, especially across southern Michigan. Mild temperatures are anticipated early next week, along with precipitation chances developing late Sunday into Monday. With this weather set-up, we expect fine particulate levels to continue in the upper Good to low Moderate range through early next week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show an active weather pattern setting up in the long-term forecast, including the coming Thanksgiving holiday. This will be something to keep an eye on, especially if you have travel plans. Regarding air quality, an active weather pattern hampers significant pollution development; therefore, fine particulate readings higher than low to middle Moderate are not anticipated.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, November 25, 2024

11/18/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 18, 2024, through, Friday, November 22, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today, Monday, starts with foggy conditions across much of the state. Due to the stagnation and increased surface moisture, fine particulate concentrations are in the Moderate range at several central and southern locations. The fog should dissipate as the day progresses, and hourly fine particulate levels will also improve. Daily concentrations on Monday should range from upper Good north to middle Moderate south.

On the weather map early this week, a storm system will track from the Southern Plain states on Monday, northeast through Minnesota on Tuesday. During this time, an associated frontal boundary lifts into the Great Lakes region. Precipitation with this boundary moves southwest to northeast through the state late Monday into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, the surface low north of Minnesota merges with another northern low. This combined system is expected to settle east of Michigan past mid-week. Cooler air is anticipated to settle in at that time, and some models are showing snow as a possibility with the colder air in place. Regardless of the type of precipitation, cooler conditions linger through the end of the week, along with chances for precipitation.

 As for air quality, moisture trapped at the surface early Monday will cause Moderate concentrations of fine particulate across the central and southern portions of the state, while readings should remain Good further north. The expected boundary lifts north of the state early Tuesday, and winds should pick up in speed from the south. Increased moisture will be in place, but stronger winds will hamper air stagnation, and fine particulate levels should not be any higher than low Moderate Tuesday. Cooler air filters in later Wednesday into Thursday as winds switch to the northwest. Fine particulate concentrations in the Good range are expected past Wednesday, lasting the rest of the workweek.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures continuing into the start of the weekend. Fine particulate levels during this period will likely range between Good and low Moderate

Next Forecast Update: Friday, November 22, 2024

11/14/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:Thursday November 14th through Monday November 18th 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Most of us Michiganders wake up to damp and dreary skies as a Low-pressure system is moving to the east just to the south of us near the Ohio border. This pressure system brought in rain overnight with some areas seeing rain taper off with others seeing a persistent rain. By tomorrow, Friday morning, the system will be well off to the east, but lingering rain showers may persist especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline due to lake enhanced forcing causing pop up rain showers, much alike lake effect snow. By Friday afternoon the majority of Michigan is dry but overcast skies will last essentially throughout the entire weekend, even though a High-pressure system moves in. Even though it will be cloudy, the High-pressure system will shift winds to more southerly flow which will bring in warmer air with some areas approaching the mid-50s on Saturday and Sunday. Another pressure system moves into the region early Monday which will shift winds back to more northerly flow, thus cooling us down into the upper 40s.

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range with most of the areas seeing Moderate concentrations being more populated areas like Grand Rapids and Detroit. Once winds shift to southerly flow, this may bring in more PM-2.5 concentrations but nothing major, although slightly noticeable on monitors throughout Saturday and Sunday. Overall, Good to low-Moderate averages are expected.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week will see numerous pressure systems influencing our weather with mid-to-late next week possibly seeing snowflakes across the state. With the multiple rounds of pressure systems, air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, November 18, 2024

11/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:Tuesday November 12th through Thursday November 14th, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We enter the middle of November with forecasted surface high temperatures hanging around normal temperatures for this time of the year. After a few days of sporadic and spotty rain showers, High-pressure and associated clear conditions, set in for the next day or so. As we get into Wednesday, although the High-pressure moves off to the northeast, conditions throughout the day will be rather identical to today, Tuesday. The next Low-pressure system to bring in rain will move into the region late Wednesday and into Thursday with showers hanging around throughout Thursday but slowly tapering off as we approach the evening.

For air quality and associated PM-2.5 concentrations, as a result of the cold front and rain we experienced this past weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations received a good cleanout therefore conditions are currently sitting in the Good range. Regionally Good concentrations will aid the multi-day Good conditions we will see for PM-2.5 in the Great Lakes state. These conditions are expected to continue due to the aforementioned Low-pressure system and rain forecasted to traverse the state Wednesday into Thursday.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Conditions this weekend look clear with temperatures in the low-50s, clearing skies, and Good overall air quality.

Next Forecast Update: Thursday, November 14, 2024

11/08/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, November 8, 2024, through Tuesday, November 12, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After enjoying unseasonably warm weather early in the week, things have settled back into more seasonable fall temperatures. 

 High pressure will slide over the Great Lakes region during Friday to begin the weekend weather.  Under sunny skies, afternoon highs will reach the 50’s and clear, dry nights can reach down to the freezing mark.  Air Quality is expected to be Good. 

 As the high pressure ridge quickly exits the region, clouds will roll in late Saturday in advance of an approaching low pressure system.  The front associated with that system will pass through Michigan during Sunday with expected precipitation amounts around a third of an inch.  Although winds will briefly shift to the southwest prior to the frontal passage, Air Quality should remain in the Good range.

 Another, less juicy front, approaches the region on Monday and is expected to be pushed southward over the Great Lakes during Tuesday by a high pressure cell over Ontario.  Not much precipitation is expected with this frontal passage with Air Quality still in the Good category.

Due to the Veteran’s Day holiday on Monday, this forecast will be updated on Tuesday.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good going into the upcoming work week.

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, November 12, 2024

11/05/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 4, 2024, through Friday, November 8, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we enter the first full week of November, ozone season is now complete, and we focus solely on PM-2.5.  Wildfire smoke does not appear to be an issue with the number of fires in western U.S. and Canada greatly reduced.  In fact, the smoke models are not showing any significant smoke, anywhere. 

 The particulate models are still showing some areas of Low Moderate PM-2.5 so I will keep Moderate in the forecast for the lower half the Lower Peninsula, during Monday.  But then it clears out and I expect Good Air Quality for the remainder of the forecast period.

 In terms of the weather outlook, it looks to be very wet through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.  Moist southerly winds are bringing in high potential rainfall amounts, up to 3” in some areas of western Michigan.  The rain looks to be joined by strong winds during election day (Tuesday).  The wet weather will eventually end on Wednesday and things will dry out under sunny skies for Thursday and Friday.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good going into the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, November 8, 2024

10/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 28, 2024, through, Friday, November 1, 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI), but a few locations may reach low Moderate (Yellow AQI) Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new workweek starts with a dry, mild Monday, but the next few days feature a rollercoaster of temperatures. Yes, the end of October is quickly approaching; however, record-breaking temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front pushing north through the state late Monday/early Tuesday brings with it chances for showers and/or storms but also a gusty southwest wind in its wake. This strong, southerly flow brings in warm air Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs well into the 70s expected. The next chance for precipitation arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front tracks west to east through the Great Lakes region. This boundary may result in wet conditions for trick-or-treaters on Halloween. The start of November features cooler and dry conditions as high pressure moves in behind the Thursday cold front.

As for air quality, Thursday is Halloween, but it also officially marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. Warmer temperatures on a southerly wind may allow for a few locations to reach low-Moderate for ozone either Tuesday or Wednesday; however, mostly Good readings will close out the 2024 season. For fine particulate, the strong southerly wind may transport in some smoke from seasonal agricultural fires well south of the state. We are seeing this trend in current weather models, and it is being picked up on smoke forecast models as well. We do not expect significant increases in fine particulate at the surface, but readings in the Moderate range are likely, especially across much of lower Michigan. We will keep an eye on both the weather forecast and smoke models during the week, and this forecast will be updated if daily averages higher than Moderate become likely.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next storm system approaching Sunday, which will bring precipitation back into the forecast. Air quality levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected during this period.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, November 1, 2024

10/25/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday October 25th through Monday October 28th2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and Low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Although cooler, another Pure Michigan Fall weekend is in store after most of us woke up to rain this Friday morning. This rain was accompanied by a cold front, hence the slight cool down we will see today and into tomorrow. Once the Low-pressure carrying the cold front moves off to the east, a High-pressure system fills in behind it throughout the day tomorrow, Saturday. High temperatures will hang right around normal, with slightly below normal in some areas, tomorrow as the High-pressure moves in bringing north to northwesterly winds. As the High-pressure traverses through the Midwest and into the Ohio River Valley, winds will shift to more southerly flow which will provide us a warmup going into Sunday. Accompanying this High-pressure will be clear skies for most areas on Saturday and Sunday. As we round out the weekend and head into Monday, Michigan will be sandwiched between two pressure systems, one Low and the other High. For the beginning half of the week, we will be in the warm sector of those pressure systems with the 70s returning to the Great Lakes State. Along with the warmth, conditions will be rather breezy as being between two pressure systems increases the pressure gradient thus causing gusty winds. In these situations, wind blows from High-pressure to Low-pressure, so since the position of the High-pressure will be south of Michigan, warm air will be pushed into the state.

For air quality, after Friday’s rain a good cleanout of concentrations occurred for both Ozone and PM-2.5. Ozone will continue to remain in the Good range as the Ozone season ends on Thursday, October 31st. PM-2.5 concentrations will hang around the Good range, but once winds shift to more southerly flow, PM-2.5 concentrations may increase but only into the low-Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

We will see the 70s return to start off next week with overall air quality remaining Good.

Next Forecast Update: Monday October 28th, 2024

10/21/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 21st, through Friday October 25th 2024

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and Low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Summer-like warmth returns for the beginning half of this week with some areas in Michigan approaching the 80-degree mark today and tomorrow, Tuesday. This late-October warm up is solely due to the persistent High-pressure sitting to our southeast, bringing in warm air from the south via southwesterly winds. As we approach midweek, however, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front will traverse the Great Lakes region bringing a cool down back to near-normal temperatures and the potential for rain showers throughout the day on Wednesday. As quickly as the Low-pressure enters the region is as quickly as it leaves as Thursday, although cooler, will see a High-pressure and associated clear skies sitting right over us in the Great Lakes state. In Pure Michigan fashion, however, we rollercoaster into another Low-pressure system with more potential for rain on Friday. Yet another High-pressure will fill in behind this Low-pressure providing clearing skies for the last weekend of October.

For air quality, throughout this past weekend there was an upper-level wildfire smoke plume that hung around the Midwest. This Monday morning appears to see that same plume hanging around with some of the smoke dropping down to the mid-to-lower levels of the atmosphere due to the ongoing High-pressure regime. Intermittent hazy skies can be expected through Wednesday until the Low-pressure comes in and cleans out the atmosphere. PM-2.5 concentrations near the surface are expected to be in the Moderate range, with some of the more populated areas seeing hourly values in the high-Moderate range. But overall daily averages for PM-2.5 should average out in the low-to-mid Moderate range. For Ozone, we start the last full week of the 2024 Ozone season with the potential of Moderate to possibly high-Moderate concentrations due to the warming temperatures today, Monday and tomorrow, Tuesday. Nothing more than Moderate concentrations is expected, especially as the Low-pressure and cold front on Wednesday will help to clean out any build up.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, we may see intermittent rain on Friday, but skies clear for the weekend thanks to a High-pressure system. Overall air quality is expected to remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Friday October 25th, 2024