FORECAST SUMMARY:
Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 through Monday, February 22nd, 2021
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Extremely cold weather continues through the remainder of this work week. As of Tuesday morning, a surface low is tracking though western New York, which will cause snow to end by mid-morning. Weak northerly winds should keep Air Quality mostly Good through Tuesday.
Mostly calm winds with a slight southeast bias could lead to some Moderate levels during Wednesday. During this recent cold snap, some higher concentrations have been observed during the late night and early morning hours as calm conditions tend to trap air near the cold ground surface. Fortunately, that trapping breaks up during the morning hours such that the 24-hour average usually remains Good to Low Moderate. Such may be the case on Wednesday.
The remainder of the work week should be under a weak northerly or westerly wind flow and more consistent Good Air Quality.
Low winds biased to a southerly component should return for the weekend along with the chance of Moderate conditions. A warmup looks to be on track for early next week. A melting snowpack will add moisture over a cold ground surface which will likely cause low-level trapping and higher fine particulates levels.