FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, July 29th, 2019 through Friday, August 2nd, 2019
Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week, then a mix of Good and Moderates are expected.
PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low-Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A cold front passing Monday will bring showers and/or storms. High pressure then moves in Tuesday and forecast models have this high positioned over the Great Lakes region through the end of the week. A small chance for precipitation lingers Tuesday mostly in the east, otherwise, dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity’s can be expected.
Clouds and precipitation will keep Ozone Good Monday. Good levels continue Tuesday into Wednesday thanks to northwesterly winds and cooler surface and upper level temperatures. Temperatures will warm at the surface each day past mid-week, but upper level readings remain low through Friday. Ozone could reach Moderate in a few locations, but mostly Good levels should continue.
Fine particulate could also see slow increases starting Thursday, but readings higher than low-Moderate are not anticipated.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models keep high pressure over the region through early next week. Remaining under the same airmass for a few days could be a set up for increased pollution. At this time readings higher than Moderate are not expected, but this forecast will be updated Friday to better detail air quality conditions through early next week.
Next forecast update: Friday, August 2nd, 2019
Stephanie M. Hengesbach
Meteorologist
Air Quality Division
Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy