FORECAST SUMMARY:
Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 through Monday, January 27th, 2020
PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Quiet conditions will persist through mid-week before a stacked low-pressure area brings precipitation in the forecast starting early Thursday. Any precipitation should be light; however, chances linger until early Saturday as the system slowly tracks west to east just south of the state. Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through much of the period. West winds Monday, back to the southwest/south Wednesday and Thursday, and then to the southeast/east Friday and Saturday as the low pulls away from the region.
As for air quality, no long periods of stagnation develop this week; however, neither will there be any strong wind shift to the north. Also, snow cover exists across much of the state which combined with warmer temperatures may allow for higher fine particulate concentrations. We expect fine particulate to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through this week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Saturday into Sunday, but another system is poised to drop in from the northwest Monday. Winds may be weaker ahead of and with the Monday disturbance; this will likely continue the trend of Good to middle Moderate fine particulate.
Next forecast update: Monday, January 27th, 2020
Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division