FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, June 29th, 2020 through Tuesday, June 30th, 2020
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good to Moderate during Monday and Tuesday. Air Quality will likely decrease over the course of the week.PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
The week is shaping up to be a warm one as we approach the holiday weekend. Fortunately, Air Quality was Good, over the weekend, so we are starting off with a clean base. With that said, the week promises to be sunny, hot, and humid. The only real chance of clouds and shower activity will be in the extreme southwest corner of the state which could be affected by a stationary front over Illinois and Indiana. But that is only for late Monday and Tuesday.
In many ways, the weather models are showing a very similar setup to what we saw, two weeks ago, when we had elevated ozone for the much of the week. The ozone models, however, are not showing much in the way of ozone development early this week. The surface winds for the week look to be light and biased from the southeast, just as it was two weeks ago. The upper air winds look to have a northerly component, for much of the week, which will be clean and can mix down. Another factor is that the atmosphere had high levels of smoke over the Midwest, two weeks ago, and that certainly could have contributed to the higher ozone levels. Today, the maps indicate no smoke over the Midwest.
With all these factors, I do not see Tuesday as having a high threat for widespread elevated ozone. With the southeast winds, the area with the highest potential will be northwest of the Detroit area. Even so, the models are not indicating anything worse than High Moderate.
Given the fact that we are in the period of the summer when ozone production potential is at its highest, we will be watching closely the entire week. As such, I anticipate a daily update to this forecast every day.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality will likely elevate to Moderate and perhaps USG during the latter half of the week.