FORECAST SUMMARY:
Friday, July 3rd, 2020 through Saturday, July 4th, 2020
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate with a chance for isolated USG; Air Quality may decrease as we move into early next week.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to middle Moderate through the weekend.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Conditions, for the most part, remain unchanged Friday and Saturday. The only exception is a weak shortwave dropping in Friday may trigger isolated storms in the afternoon/evening. Otherwise, hot, humid, and sunny conditions continue through the July 4th holiday.
As for air quality, there was one monitor in the southeastern portion of the state that went just over the USG threshold Thursday. Besides that, readings were mostly upper Good to upper Moderate. Friday and Saturday, surface and upper levels winds remain northwesterly to northeasterly. Again, there may be an isolated monitor or two that hit USG either along the west Michigan lakeshore or in the southeast, but we are expecting most sites to remain Moderate.
As we continue into the weekend, winds look to turn more southerly by Sunday. With yet another day under pretty much the same air mass, the chance for increased ozone remains. We will evaluate weather maps and update the forecast Saturday to determine if any action days are warranted for Sunday.
Light winds and no air mass change has allowed for an uptick in fine particulate. With conditions not changing, and possibly localized fireworks displays over the next few days, we are expecting fine particulate to range from upper Good to mostly Moderate through the weekend.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
With the continued uncertainty in the air quality forecast, we will update the forecast daily. For now, we expected ozone will stay mostly Moderate and perhaps an isolated USG moving into the weekend.
Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach
Next forecast update: Saturday, July 4th, 2020