FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, July 6th, 2020 through Tuesday, July 7th, 2020
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate with a good chance of USG along the southern tier counties of Lake Michigan and Southeast Michigan.PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.
AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MONDAY and TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...
WEST MICHIGAN
ALLEGAN... BERRIEN… CASS… KENT... MUSKEGON... OTTAWA… AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES; AND
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… WASHTENAW… AND WAYNE COUNTIES
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Hot, sunny weather is expected to continue until the end of the work week. A front is expected to pass Friday morning to finally provide relief.
For the most part, Michigan has been spared elevated ozone during this hot weather spell. Because of the wind patterns, most of the pollutants have impacted the other side of Lake Michigan. Southeast Michigan has been spared because winds, light as they were, came from non-polluted areas and helped dilute down local stagnation.
We began issuing Air Quality Advisories on Saturday because winds have slowly begun migrating around to the southwest. So far, those winds have been light enough that the bad air has not made it to our shores. We did have some exceptional high particulate numbers in the Southeast, over the weekend, but that can be traced back to firework displays.
Wind patterns are now starting to stabilize and be persistently from the west and southwest at all levels of the atmosphere. This means that we can expect ozone numbers to steadily climb during the week. Most of the ozone models have been performing well and all are showing a jump in numbers, this week. As the atmosphere gets more humid, chances increase for pop-up showers, but that will be scattered enough not to help in the big picture.
As such, we are continuing our Air Quality Advisories, in the most susceptible areas, along with daily forecast updates.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality will stay mostly Moderate with USG likely in the most susceptible areas.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, July 6th, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, July 7th, 2020