FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, October 18th, 2021, through Friday, October 22nd, 2021
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will be mostly Good with some low Moderates possible.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Pleasant fall conditions will be in place Monday and Tuesday thanks to a large high-pressure area south and east of the region. The next storm system comes into play Wednesday and precipitation chances increases from west to east as the day progresses. Rain showers linger Thursday as a cold front tracks through the region. Cooler air filtering in behind the front brings more seasonable fall temperatures, and cooler temperatures could aid in the development of scattered lake effect showers Friday, possibly into Saturday.
As for air quality, plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will do little to increase ozone with it being so late in the season. Winds shifting to more of a southerly component could allow for some hourly Moderate fine particulate readings, but daily averages of both fine particulate and 8-hour ozone are expected to remain Good through mid-week. Northerly winds develop Thursday into Friday bringing in clean air. Both ozone and fine particulate will end the week in the Good range.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models are a bit unclear on a potential system for early next week. Regardless on the timing of the next system, temperatures remain at more seasonable levels through early next week. Ozone will remain Good and at worst, fine particulate would be low Moderate.
Forecast Updated by : Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach.
Next Forecast update: Friday, October 22nd, 2021