FORECAST SUMMARY:
MONDAY, JUNE 14, THROUGH FRIDAY, JUNE 18, 2021
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through mid-week with Moderates possible Thursday. Good levels return Friday.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average fine particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with low-Moderates possible past midweek.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A cooler, cleaner airmass will be in place through mid-week with generally Good levels of ozone and fine particulate. Weak upper-level systems bring scattered to isolated diurnal showers in the forecast Monday and again Tuesday. Otherwise, surface high pressure moving in keeps primarily dry, pleasant conditions in place. The next weather system is a cold front forecast to pass later Thursday into Friday.
With a northerly wind in place mostly Good ozone and particulate is expected through Wednesday. Lighter winds in the morning may allow hourly fine particulate to reach low Moderate for a few hours in the southeast; however, daily averages should remain mostly Good. By Thursday, a warmer southwest flow returns ahead of the next system. Thursday has the best chance for Moderate ozone and/or fine particulate. At this time, I don’t foresee pollution reaching higher than Moderate, but if our thoughts on that change, we will update this forecast Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation by Friday should keep ozone Good while fine particulate may reach low Moderate in a few locations.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show high pressure and warming temperature by the end of the weekend, but showers and storms may return Monday. Considering the time of year, we will update this forecast Friday to better detail expected air quality conditions for the weekend into early next week.