FORECAST SUMMARY:
FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 2nd, 2021, through Wednesday, August 4th, 2021
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good to Low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Following a prolonged event with wildfire smoke affecting our monitors with fine particulates, I am expecting a quieter week from an Air Quality perspective. Yesterday (Sunday), we saw several hours of smoke mixing down and causing some of our West Michigan monitors to reach the Unhealthy range. Fortunately, those high impact hours were brief, and the overall 24-hour averages stayed in the Moderate range.
This work week starts with cooler weather and monitors showing mostly Good Air Quality as the overhead smoke gets pushed southward. I expect the cooler weather to persist through mid-week and Air Quality to remain mostly Good.
The latter half of the week will experience a gradual warming trend, and we can expect near 90-degree weather during the weekend. I anticipate the warmup will cause a creep in ozone concentrations by the end of the week. So far, the smoke models are showing little overhead smoke throughout the work week, but the wildfires can be unpredictable.
Conditions look to stay dry until the weekend. A shortwave trough looks to be on track for Saturday which could prompt some cloud cover and the chance of showers. But it’s too early to nail that one down, precisely.
Since I am expecting a warmup, starting on Wednesday, and we are still in peak ozone season, I will be updating this forecast at that time.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to be Good increasing to Moderate going into the weekend.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 2nd, 2021