FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, August 9th, 2021, through Friday, August 13th, 2021
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the low-to-mid Moderate range for much of the week due to warmer temperatures and southwest winds. These concentrations will be dependent upon potential precipitation and cloud cover.
PM-2.5: After weeks of pretty steady PM2.5 concentrations, it appears we get somewhat of a break from smoke for at least the first half of the week. Mid-week concentrations will rise due to a plume making its way to the region from out west.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
For much of the week, upper-level winds will be from the southwest due to a Low-pressure system sitting to our west until a front comes through Friday and shifts winds to more northwesterly flow. Upper-level temperatures will be in the upper-teens to low-twenties degrees Celsius, which will aid in the development of ozone. The combination of warm upper-level temperatures and southwest winds will ramp up the production of Ozone but broken and overcast skies may help to inhibit the production of Ozone. In terms of smoke concentrations, as mentioned above, the area receives somewhat of a break until mid-week when smoke from out west enters the area. Surface temperatures will be hot and humid for much of this week until a cold front enters the region Thursday night and into Friday.
Surface winds will primarily be from the southwest this week which tends to produce Ozone concentrations along southwest Michigan and up the Lake Michigan shoreline. Cloud cover may cut off the production of Ozone but breaks in cloud and ample sunlight will produce some Moderate concentrations. Along with the cloud cover, precipitation is forecasted for much of the week, so this too, will help cut off Ozone concentrations. Some models are showing rather heavy Ozone concentrations over Lake Michigan, with some creeping ashore, but will be dependent upon cloud cover and potential precipitation. This is the reasoning for forecasting Moderate Ozone concentrations for most of southern Michigan.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
A cold front comes through Thursday into Friday, essentially clearing out the area and setting up a High-pressure to our west. This is also when smoke concentrations appear to enter the region once again.
Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki August 9th, 2021
Next Forecast update: Friday, August 13th, 2021