FORECAST SUMMARY:
FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 16th, 2021 through Friday, August 20th, 2021
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate with chances for Moderates increasing past mid-week.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the middle Good to low Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The big weather story early this week is Tropical Storm Fred making landfall across the western Florida Panhandle Monday and tracking north through midweek. Here in Michigan, increased moisture will be noted the next few days, along with increasing temperatures by Wednesday as easterly flow turns more southwesterly. There isn’t a huge trigger for storms through mid-week; however, isolated/scattered storms are in the forecast with the biggest chance coming Wednesday as a system moves up from the south. Early morning patching fog is also anticipated this week due to higher levels of moisture coupled with lighter morning winds.
As for air quality, we are starting the week with Good levels of both ozone and fine particulate, and pollution levels Monday should remain generally Good. As stated above, weak easterly winds turn more southerly around mid-week. Lighter easterly winds before then should keep fine particulate from increasing significantly; however, increased moisture and a more southerly flow will cause increases into the Moderate range as the week progresses. The same is expected for ozone concentrations. We will have a good amount of sunshine the next few days, but easterly flow and lower upper-level temperatures should keep ozone between upper Good and low Moderate. As temperatures increase past mid-week more widespread ozone concentrations could be seen. A large increase is not anticipated though since we will likely see some clouds around and there are also chances for scattered storms. Concentrations of both fine particulate and ozone should not reach higher than Moderate through Friday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Forecast models show a boundary moving through sometime Saturday which could bring more of a northerly flow by the end of the week; however, before then increased moisture and temperatures should continue, along with the chance for Moderate air quality. This forecast will be updated Friday to better detail conditions for the weekend, into early next week.