FORECAST SUMMARY:
FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 23rd, 2021, through Thursday August 26th, 2021
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to range from Good to Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Despite entering the waning days of summer, temperatures will continue to be more what we would expect during July. Temperatures through most of this work week are expected to stay in the upper 80’s with a high dew point. Unlike much of the summer, we are not seeing the smoke layer in the upper atmosphere which helped reduce ozone production.
The question, now, is if there will be any elevated ozone with potentially prime conditions. Two of the models used to prepare the forecast are showing high concentrations forming over Lake Michigan during Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday, while hot and humid with southwest winds, will most likely be overcast in advance of a late Wednesday frontal system. The third ozone model used reflects that and has little ozone forming over the next two days. So, despite ideal transport winds and ample heat and moisture, conditions should stay mostly Moderate unless we have isolated pockets of prolonged sun exposure. In that case, the possibility of isolated USG exists along the Lake Michigan shore and northeast of Detroit although the shorter days will add another factor promoting lower ozone production.
Favorable winds behind that front should reduce any potential ozone issues during Thursday. Winds do swing around to the south during Friday to set up another warm weekend.
Since we will be getting back into a southerly wind pattern during Friday, the forecast will be updated Friday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to range between Good and Moderate going into the weekend.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 23rd, 2021. Next forecast update: Thursday, August 26th, 2021