FORECAST SUMMARY:
Friday, September 24th, 2021, through Monday, September 27th, 2021
Ozone: Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this weekend and going into next week.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this weekend and going into next week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
After a week full of Fall temperatures and soaking rain, Michigan receives somewhat of a break from rain until another frontal boundary enters the region early Saturday morning.
Upper-level temperatures will remain in the single digits Celsius for much of the weekend until late-Sunday when warmer upper-level temperatures return to the region. Upper-level winds this weekend start out coming from the southwest due to a Low-pressure just to our north wrapping the winds around its circulation. As the Low exits the region Saturday afternoon, winds shift to more westerly and zonal flow going into next week.
Surface temperatures increase a little bit from the 50s Fahrenheit that Michigan was seeing the past two days. For much of the weekend, surface high temperatures are expected to be in the upper-60s Fahrenheit to low-70s Fahrenheit. Surface winds will be from the SSW for much of the weekend but should not pose a threat for Ozone development as we sometimes see with that particular wind pattern. Cooler temperatures at the surface and aloft, as well as the increasing rain chance from the frontal boundary Saturday morning, will inhibit any Ozone development over Michigan. Although there looks to be some slight pooling of Ozone over Lake Michigan, this will not be an issue for the Lake Michigan shoreline. The wildfires to the north have since died down which will keep PM-2.5 concentrations from entering the area. It is for these reasons that both Ozone and PM-2.5 concentrations will remain Good for this weekend and into next week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
The beginning of next week presents a slight warm up into the mid-70s Fahrenheit for southern Michigan. Northern Michigan will be in a northerly wind pattern, so surface high temperatures will remain in the 60s Fahrenheit. In terms of Ozone and PM-2.5 concentrations, both will remain Good to start off the week.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Friday, September 24th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, September 27th, 2021