FORECAST SUMMARY:
FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 11th, 2021 through Friday, October 15th, 2021
Ozone: Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this week, with some areas potentially reaching Moderate for hourly concentrations earlier in the week.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this week, as well as some hourly Moderate concentrations earlier in the week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Summer-like temperatures return today as surface temperatures for much of the region will reach the low 80s Fahrenheit. Fall temperatures will return mid-week as a cold front and low-pressure system make its way through the area.
Upper-level temperatures will be in the mid-upper teens Celsius. The upper-level winds coming from the SSW might cause a rise in temperatures. As we approach mid-week, upper-level temperatures drop to the single digits Celsius before returning to the mid-teens towards the end of the week. Upper-level winds remain in a WSW pattern after the cold front exits the region Tuesday and into Wednesday. These winds will then shift back to SSW flow as another Low-pressure system approaches from the west and stays to our northwest later this week.
Surface temperatures follow a similar trend to upper-level temperatures with summer-like temps returning Monday. Surface winds will be from the SW before turning more southerly Tuesday, as the approaching low-pressure treks through the region. Once the low-pressure and the cold front leaves the region, winds will be in a WSW pattern for the rest of the week.
Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good, but some concentrations in the Moderate range for hourly concentrations can be expected Monday. The combination of warmer upper-level and surface temperatures along with SW winds will create a conducive environment for Ozone development. However, the 8-hour average concentration will potentially be Good. Once the cold front moves through, it will clean out the atmosphere and will present Good concentrations for the rest of the week. PM-2.5 concentrations have a similar trend today due to smoke concentrations lingering around the Midwest but will be filtered out once the cold front moves through.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
A cool down can be expected towards the weekend, with surface highs in the upper-50s Fahrenheit and westerly winds. Overall, concentrations are expected to remain Good.