FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, August 30th, 2021, through Friday, September 3rd, 2021
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the week with a chance of a monitor or two reaching the low Moderate range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good as well, as heavy rainfall to our northwest aided in the suppression of the fires that were igniting there the past few weeks.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
After a week or so of hot and humid temperatures, the area finally gets a break thanks to the front that passed through yesterday evening. Upper-level temperatures this week will drop from the mid-teens Celsius to single digits as we get to Thursday. Upper-level winds start out early in the week coming from the northwest and shift to the northeast as we approach Wednesday.
Surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper-70s to low-80s Fahrenheit throughout this week with dew point temperatures expected to drop to the low-50s Fahrenheit. Surface winds will be from the NNE for most of the week with southerly flow returning Friday afternoon. After a week of ozone development and growth, the environment this week does not seem to be conducive of ozone development, but as stated above, this does not rule out a monitor or two reaching the Moderate threshold. There appears to be some O3 pooling over Lake Michigan today, Monday, and into tomorrow, but the northeast flow should keep those concentrations out over the lake.
Numerous models show slight O3 development over Lake Michigan throughout the week, but as just stated, the NNE winds will keep those concentrations from coming ashore. Also, the O3 appears to dissipate quickly throughout the day each day, instead of gradually growing throughout the week. In terms of PM-2.5, like said above, rainfall to our northwest has helped keep the fires at bay and diminish much of the smoke we were seeing last week. Some upper-level smoke is forecasted to enter the area later this week from out west but is not expected to reach the surface.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
A high-pressure system stays over us throughout the week until Friday when another frontal boundary approaches the area which will aid in concentrations remaining mostly Good.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday, August 30th, 2021
Next Forecast update: Friday, September 3rd, 2021