FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, September 7th, 2021, through Friday, September 10th, 2021

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with a better chance of Moderates late in the week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a few low Moderates possible, generally in the southeast.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good air quality was seen this past Labor Day weekend and this trend is expected to continue much of this week. A cold front will be passing through the state Tuesday. Storms with this boundary were already across the northern half of the state late Tuesday morning. Storm chances increase further south during the afternoon/evening as the line travels east/southeast. Some of these storms could be on the strong side so they are something to keep an eye on. Temperatures will be warm further south, but clouds and precipitation move in early enough to keep ozone Good. Fine particulate may have some hourly levels in the low-Moderate range, but daily averages will also be Good.

Gusty west/northwest winds develop behind the boundary for Wednesday and scattered to isolated showers are a possibility, generally in northern portions of the state. Cooler temperatures and west/northwest winds will keep both ozone and fine particulate Good through Thursday. Winds decrease in speed by Friday as high pressure settles closer to the region; however, primarily Good pollution levels should continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show warmer conditions by Saturday and another frontal system comes into play later Saturday or Sunday. The best chance for Moderate pollution levels seems to be Saturday so we will update this forecast Friday to better detail air quality conditions for the weekend into early next week.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach, EGLE Meteorologist

Next Forecast update: Friday, September 10th, 2021