1/31/2022 Forecast Update
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday January 31st, 2022, through Monday February 7th, 2022
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Mid to High Moderate during Monday, Good to Low Moderate on Tuesday, then Good for the remainder of the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
As I surveyed the maps, this Monday morning, I was struck by two significant features. The first feature noticed was the particulate readings, throughout the Midwest. They were observed to be quite higher than normal with concentrations well into the High Moderate to Low USG range for hourly readings. With the slightly warmer temperatures sitting on top of a cold snowpack and no wind to move it around, a strong low-level inversion formed to keep particulates trapped and accumulating close to the ground. This will likely continue through Monday although I hope the 24-hour average may be watered down, a bit. We will still be under warmer southwest winds, during Tuesday, but it will be breezy and that should mix up the atmosphere, nicely.
The second feature that caught my eye was the potential for a major snowstorm event during the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. If the current forecast bears fruit, we could be seeing snowfall rates around 10 inches in some parts of southern Michigan. That will certainly require close attention as that event draws closer. From the Air Quality perspective, a cold front which will pass through Wednesday and precede the snow, will yield a wind shift to the northwest. That will clean out any residual high particulate readings.
I anticipate Good Air Quality should persist for the remainder of the forecast period.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to be remain mostly Good to start the next work week.