FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 14th, 2022, through Monday March 21st, 2022
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate through the work week, transitioning to Good for most of the weekend. Another warming trend, starting late in the weekend, may start a creep back into the Low Moderate range to begin the next work week.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Following an unseasonably cold weekend, the work week begins with a warming trend. Fine particulates are currently running in the Low Moderate range, in the Lower Peninsula, as of Monday morning. This is not unexpected as warming air triggers more melting and the cold ground, underneath, settles the air and discourages dispersion and dilution.
A stationary front is draped over the lower portion of the state, Monday morning, will also trap particulates near the surface. This front may trigger some freezing rain, north of I-96, Monday night and Tuesday morning.
A nice warming trend will occur during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Like Monday, warmer air over cold ground creates a very stable atmosphere with little vertical dispersion. As such, fine particulates will remain in the Moderate range.
The largest weather feature of the week looks to occur in the Thursday night/Friday morning time slot. A classic combination of a warm front passage, Thursday night, followed by a cold front, early Friday, will usher in warmer air followed by sharply colder air for the weekend.
Following the cold front, I anticipate Good Air Quality will then persist for the remainder of the weekend followed by another warming trend, with possible Low Moderates, beginning on Monday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to be Good to Low Moderate starting the work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 14th, 2022
Next forecast update: Monday, March 21st, 2022