FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 1st, 2022, through Friday, September 2nd, 2022
OZONE: :8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to Moderate.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
High pressure dominating conditions will produce plenty of sunshine for the end of the workweek. Along with sunny skies, temperatures increase into the 80s across most of the region. Lighter winds Thursday pick up some from the south/southwest Friday as the high slides east of the region. With the warmer conditions comes an uptick in air quality levels.
As for air quality, we are coming off a low background so while increases in ozone are anticipated, 8-hour averages are not expected to reach higher than Moderate Thursday. Winds switch to more of a southerly component Friday; however, models are not showing significant rises in ozone. Also, we are in the later portion of the season where UGS ozone is less common. While there is always a chance an isolated monitor may reach low-end USG, Moderate readings are more likely. An increase in fine particulate is also possible with Good levels increasing to more widespread Moderates by Friday.
There is some question on a boundary sinking in late in the week that may or may not bring precipitation. We will do another update Friday to further detail air quality conditions for the Labor Day weekend.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show warm conditions continuing into the Labor Day holiday. What is uncertain is precipitation chances, but at this time it doesn’t not look like widespread precipitation is expected. Air quality will likely range mostly Moderate into early next week.
Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Thursday, September 1st, 2022
Next forecast update: Friday, September 2nd, 2022