FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday September 6, 2022, through Thursday September 8, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with an increasing chance of Moderate by the end of the week.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Tuesday should be the gloomiest day of the forecast period because of clouds from a low-pressure system down in the Ohio Valley which continues to affect our area. As that system progresses eastward, a high-pressure ridge to our west will slowly migrate towards the state. The positioning of that approaching ridge will provide clear skies and northerly winds through mid-week and Good Air Quality. There will be a slight warming trend under daytime sunny skies, but the same clear skies will also give us good radiational cooling at night.
The center of the high-pressure should settle over the state during Thursday bringing calm conditions and a slow transition to southeast winds. There could be the beginning of a slight uptick in ozone values and fine particulates, during Thursday, where stagnation could be a problem.
Friday will likely have the best chance for any ozone concentration increase because of sunny skies and more southerly winds. Fortunately, the lateness of the season, low dew points, and cool nighttime temperatures should make the risk of elevated ozone low. Since there is the slight possibility of some elevated ozone, I will update this forecast on Thursday.
The risk should decrease during Saturday as an approaching cold front will cause increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening hours.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, September 6, 2022. Next forecast update: Thursday, September 8, 2022