FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 8th, 2022, through Friday, August 12th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good to low-Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A low-pressure area and associated boundary bring clouds and chances for precipitation Monday. With plenty of moisture in the lower atmosphere, precipitation could be heavy at times into early Tuesday morning. Skies clear out Tuesday as the boundary travels east and high pressure moves in. Another weak boundary passing late Wednesday into Thursday could cause scattered precipitation, but this looks to be a dry front so most locations will not see precipitation. High pressure settles back in from the northwest allowing for dry and comfortable conditions through the end of the workweek.
As for air quality, clouds, high dew points, and precipitation chances hamper ozone development Monday. A monitor in the south may reach low-Moderate but most locations remain Good. Cooler surface and upper-level temperatures, coupled with a northerly wind, will keep generally Good ozone around Tuesday. Temperatures make a short-lived rebound Wednesday ahead of the boundary forecast to pass by; however, upper-level winds remain calm to northwesterly which isn’t conducive for ozone development. Moderate levels may be seen Wednesday but cooler air moving in from the northwest behind the boundary allows for mostly Good ozone Thursday and Friday.
Fine particulate has been mostly Good the past few days and with systems moving through and northerly winds being reinforced every couple of days, this trend is expected to continue.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show dry conditions for the coming weekend and a continuation of comfortable temperatures. While an outbreak of high pollution is not anticipated, winds may turn more southerly late in the period. Sunny conditions also remain, so this may be our next chance for an increase in pollution. We will evaluate forecast maps Friday and submit an update then detailing air quality conditions through the weekend into early next week.
Next Forecast update: Friday, August 12th, 2022