FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 12th, 2022, through Monday, August 15th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure settled over Lake Michigan Friday morning is allowing for light to northerly winds, plenty of sunshine, and comfortable temperatures. The next storm system passing just southwest of the state will increase clouds late Friday into Saturday with precipitation chances increasing from northwest to southeast as Saturday progresses. Precipitation may linger into Sunday but high pressure moving back into the region should decrease clouds later in the day. High pressure dominates early in the workweek with sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

As for air quality, aside from a monitor or two in the southeast with low end Moderate fine particulate and/or ozone, pollution levels have been in the Good range this week. Abundant sunshine can be expected Friday; however, lower surface and upper-level temperatures along with a light northerly wind will keep air quality mostly Good. The clouds and precipitation expected Saturday will keep the mostly Good air quality trend going, which will likely extend into Sunday with cooler temperatures, southeasterly winds, and clouds most of the day. Sunshine returns Monday thanks to high pressure moving back in and seasonable temperatures can be expected. Winds at the surface and upper levels should have an easterly to northeasterly component; therefore, the trend of generally Good air quality is expected to continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions as we progress towards mid-week but then an upper-level system may move into the region bringing scattered precipitation into the forecast. Based on current forecast maps the potential for increased pollution next week doesn’t seem likely, but this forecast will be updated Monday to get a better handle on air quality as we move into mid-August.

Next Forecast update: Monday, August 15th, 2022