FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 17, 2023, through Tuesday, February 21, 2023
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate this forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The forecast period begins with Good fine particulate thanks to northerly winds behind the Thursday storm which brought snow across much of the state and also mixed precipitation further south. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature early in the Presidents Day weekend. Cold conditions Friday moderate by Saturday as the high tracks east of the state.
As for air quality, northerly winds Friday switch more southwesterly Saturday. With warmer air moving over the recent snow, we can expect an associated increase in fine particulate levels. Fine particulate should be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range. A weak clipper system tracks north of the state Sunday bringing snow chances further north, but winds should be strong enough to hamper a significant increase in pollution levels. Winds shift northerly for a short time late Sunday/early Monday before decreasing in speed between two weather systems. Since this will not be a prolonged stagnant weather pattern, daily averages of fine particulate should remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range early next week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show a weaker system passing to the north Tuesday, then a more active period later in the week. If the timing of the Tuesday system remains on track, chances for snow make a return across the northern portion of the region and a wind shift to the northwest should improve any possible fine particulate buildup. Regardless on how the timing of that system pans out, fine particulate is not expected to reach higher than Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.
Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Stephanie M. Hengesbach