FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 19th, 2023, through Monday, May 22nd, 2023
OZONE: Ozone concentrations will range from the Good to Moderate range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
This forecast summary will mainly focus on the wildfire smoke approaching Michigan from wildfires in Alberta, Canada. For the majority of the week, regional winds have been northwesterly which have been bringing wildfire smoke and associated PM-2.5 concentrations closer to the Midwest. Several states to our west have issued Air Quality Alerts for PM-2.5. One of the main driving components of PM-2.5 concentrations reaching the ground is the cold front traversing the area from NW to SE. In this situation, with the cold front moving through the area, the wildfire smoke essentially pools along the front and the air behind the front sinks, thus bringing PM-2.5 concentrations closer to the surface. This is why we are able to see PM-2.5 concentrations near the surface and the wildfire smoke aloft in the upper atmosphere because not all of the smoke reaches the ground.
In Michigan’s case, the wildfire smoke has travelled quite a long distance and that distance has helped to disperse some of the concentrations. The cold front is expected to cross Michigan throughout the day today so PM-2.5 hourly concentrations may increase into the high Moderate range. Along with a possible increase in hourly concentrations, some areas across Michigan may notice a smoke smell as the front approaches along with hazy skies which have been seen throughout this week. We expect the 24-hour averages for PM-2.5 to be in the Moderate range, but this event is worth noting, nonetheless. The front crossing Michigan along with the rain will help dissipate and disperse the concentrations further so we do not expect these concentrations to stick around. Western Michigan, especially the western UP, may experience a smoke smell more so than eastern Michigan because of the frontal passage dispersing concentrations along with the orientation of the front.
Saturday may have left over rain in the morning hours but slowly clearing up in the afternoon with winds from the NW. Sunday continues where Saturday leaves off with NW winds and sunny skies with temperatures in the 70s thanks to a High-pressure setting up to our south.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
The High-pressure moves off to our north, shifting winds to more easterly but temperatures remain the same. Overall air quality looks to be Good to start off next week.
Next Forecast Update: Monday, May 22nd, 2023