FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, August 2, 2023, through Monday, August 7, 2023
OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good to Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: The elevated layer of smoke, which significantly and noticeably dimmed the sun yesterday, will migrate eastward during Wednesday and be clear of the state by nightfall. Fortunately, we only saw a minimum mixing down and our monitor numbers remained in the Good to Moderate range throughout the state.
There was some concern about potential elevated ozone after the smoke cleared. But all models have lowered expectations and are keeping most of the higher numbers on the west side of Lake Michigan. As such, I expect mostly Moderate on the west side of the state and Good to Moderate, elsewhere, during Thursday. However, if any elevated ozone looks to shift eastward, we will modify the forecast as necessary and send an alert via EnviroFlash and AirNow.gov. A cold front passage, Thursday night, should clean the air and keep our weekend Air Quality mostly Good.
Friday and Saturday should be pleasant days under high pressure and rain looks to move in late Sunday. Both the extended smoke models and the ozone models are indicating no problems through the weekend, so I am extending this forecast out to Monday.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally B to bring the next work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Next forecast update Monday, August 7, 2023