FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, August 10th, 2020 through Friday, August 14th, 2020
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Warm conditions are in store this week. A cold front later Monday/early Tuesday will bring storms in the forecast. Precipitation should exit early Tuesday, but northerly winds will not significantly drop temperatures; highs in the 80s can be expected through the rest of the week under generally sunny skies.
As for air quality, several monitors reached Moderate for ozone Sunday and that trend will likely continue Monday. After the boundary moves through, high pressure both at the surface and upper levels will dominate the rest of the workweek. A northerly component to the wind should keep ozone Good Tuesday. Winds are light at mid-week then turn east/southeast as ridging moves east of the region. The expected wind flow this week is not conduce for ozone development; however, warmer surface and upper level temperatures, coupled with no airmass change, could cause Moderate ozone to develop by Thursday or Friday.
Fine particulate has been between upper Good and low Moderate since Sunday and levels in that range will persist until the boundary passes Tuesday. Like ozone, Good fine particulate levels at mid-week could increase back to low Moderate by Thursday or Friday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
There is some uncertainty on when the next chance for precipitation moves into the region. Extended models are showing chances for storms during the weekend, but there is enough uncertainty in the forecast that we will issue an update Friday to detail anticipated air quality conditions for the weekend, into next week.
Forecast Updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach August 10th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Friday, August 14th, 2020