FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, August 17th, 2020 through Monday, August 24th, 2020
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Scattered precipitation could develop Monday afternoon, otherwise, generally dry, and comfortable conditions are in store most of the workweek. This will be attributed to surface high pressure and a northwesterly upper level flow. A system further north could bring precipitation past mid-week up north, however, the next decent chance for precipitation looks to hold off until the weekend.
Sunday started the week with Good levels of both ozone and fine particulate. Surface high pressure and northwesterly winds should keep Good pollution through mid-week. As the high drifts east, winds change to a more southerly direction late Thursday into Friday. Plenty of sunshine is expected during this time and temperatures should increase a bit both at the surface and upper levels which could bring in some Moderate ozone by Friday. Fine particulate may also increase with readings between upper Good and low Moderate.
Ahead of the next weather system, dew points increase Saturday along with cloud cover over the region. Temperatures and wind flow may be more conducive for ozone development, but clouds and chances for precipitation should keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. Fine particulate may increase with more widespread low-Moderate readings.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Depending on the timing of the weekend front, precipitation may linger into Sunday. Extended forecast models show another boundary coming through in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Since there does not seem to be a period of stagnation in the long-term forecast, pollution levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected early next week.