FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, may 3, 2024, through Monday, May 6, 2024
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate (Yellow AQI) range..
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Some of us Michiganders were awoken overnight to rumbles of thunder and relatively heavy downpours as a Low-pressure system and frontal boundary traversed the state overnight. The rain is steadily moving off to the northeast with High-pressure filling in behind it. This particular High-pressure is a quick moving system as yet another Low-pressure system is expected to cross over Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Luckily, though, rain with that system should be on the lighter side and predominantly overnight, so Sunday is expected to be relatively dry.
Besides dodging rain showers, this weekend is turning out to be a great way to kick off May with surface temperatures ranging from the low-50s to upper-70s throughout Michigan on Saturday. Sunday, after the frontal boundary exits the area, Michigan is left with temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to upper-60s. Winds will be relatively light throughout with southerly winds slowly transitioning into northerly winds on Sunday, before turning easterly on Monday.
In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations will stay predominantly in the Good range due to rain showers overnight each night this weekend. The rain showers and shifting winds will help clean out the airmass and keep the airmass in the Good range for particulate concentrations. For Ozone, Saturday is looking to be the first day this year where Ozone concentrations closely approach USG-level concentrations, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline in southwestern Michigan. South to slightly southwesterly winds will blow pollutants across Lake Michigan into the southwest Michigan area. High Moderate concentrations are a given in this situation, especially with ample sunlight and warm temperatures. However, surface temperatures are expected to be in high-70s, and upper-level temperatures are still cool enough to inhibit Ozone development. The cloud cover forecast is still being figured out, which will hinder Ozone development even more if there’s persistent cloud cover. During peak heating hours, there may be an hour of USG concentrations, but the overall 8-hour average is expected to be in the high Moderate range.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
High-pressure hangs around through Monday with the warmth staying put as well. Air quality should be around the Good to Low-Moderate range.
Next forecast update: Monday, May 6, 2024